Coronavirus progression in the UK. An ominous pause for breath

Main photo by Michał Parzuchowski on Unsplash

The rise in new positive tests for coronavirus in the UK showed an ever so slight fall yesterday.

Funnily enough, the Italian outbreak also dipped, although by much more, at the same point in its progression.

Sadly, that was it as far as good news went. The following day in Italy, 11 March, they recorded more than twice as many new cases – 2,313. Over 5,300 Italians tested positive yesterday, bringing their total to over 40,000.

If the UK outbreak follows the same trajectory as Italy – which nobody can predict, of course – total positive tests here would at least quadruple over the next 10 days.

We’re not only lagging Italy in time, though, we’re lagging in severity. A fourfold rise in confirmed infections would bring the UK total to a more manageable 12,000 by the end of March.

For whatever reason, the UK is still one of the least-affected countries in Europe. Affected by the disease, that is, not by the response. The reaction continues to kill livelihoods across the nation.

Chart showing coronavirus cases per million people in different European countries
A heap you want to be bottom of

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